Peak oil – when we start to run out of oil
Did you know we have found hardly any oil since the 1970’s – how much is left? The major oil fields are listed here . The “new” oil that has been found is mostly is difficult to recover, the old oil fields are getting harder to recover what has not been already removed.
So basically for over 20 years we have been finding better ways to squeeze the juice out of the orange. Its getting harder and more costly to do it.
Dr. M. King Hubbert was an interesting guy in this area
Dr Campbell, is a former chief geologist and vice-president at a string of oil majors including BP, Shell, Fina, Exxon and ChevronTexaco. He explains that the peak of regular oil – the cheap and easy to extract stuff – has already come and gone in 2005. Even when you factor in the more difficult to extract heavy oil, deep sea reserves, polar regions and liquid taken from gas, the peak will come as soon as 2011, he say.
Peak Oil is the point when the world has used up 50% of its global reserves of oil. When this happens the economic community goes into panic as it is the day when everyone realises we are running out of oil. There are very limited reliabale figures about this and as a government/oil company/anyone trying to control this date you can play with the numbers:
Table of major oil reserves by year they were predicted
| 1980 | 1981 | 1982 | 1983 | 1984 | 1985 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | |
| UAE | 28 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Iran | 58 | 57 | 57 | 55 | 51 | 48 | 48 | 49 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 90 | 88 | 93 | 93 | 90 |
| Iraq | 31 | 30 | 30 | 41 | 43 | 44 | 44 | 47 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 112 | 112 | 112 |
| Kuwait | 65 | 66 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 90 | 90 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 |
| Saudi Arabia | 163 | 165 | 165 | 162 | 166 | 169 | 169 | 167 | 167 | 170 | 257 | 257 | 258 | 259 | 259 | 259 | 259 | 259 | 259 |
| Venezuela | 18 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 56 | 58 | 59 | 59 | 63 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 65 | 72 | 73 |
So in the mid 1980’s how did some countries magically find a great deal of oil, but no one found any more reserves. Why did this happen?
Oil prices were rising dramatically as demand was growing, percieved supply was not growing and hence countries were starting to look at alternative energy. Anyone holding oil may soon be holding a worthless commodity, but if supply was made to appear limitless, the price would fall and people would stop looking to alternatives….bingo lets just change the numbers stating how much we had.
Doug playing today
Popularity: 1% [?]

I wanna buy oil stocks. I’m just not sure where yet. Maybe Canada or Norway.
Doug, check this site out if you haven’t already regarding peak oil…
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Thanks for the link Rick – hadnt seen that site before… its scary reading, especially the bit that even conversing energy may pardoxically expedite the situation – so basically we’re all screwed – just a matter of when…..
Pray for some more oil sands
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_sands
then maybe we can allow Russia to rape the North and South Poles.
Maybe the Yanks could drive smaller cars, or hell, what about walking :-)
http://onlyinamericablogging.blogspot.com/2008/01/planet-is-fucked-indias-2500-car.html
A challenger for Doug… :-)
Absolutely awesome Rich:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Doug
That’s some read, thanks Doug.
People are incredibly blinkered about this sort of issue.
I looked at getting my house zero carbon rated, it was an almost task of biblical proportions. Just when I thought I was getting close you find out the government grant is some sort of “look what you could have won”.
My initial thoughts after reading this is we should plough money into renewable energy like water/air/groundsource heat pumps to reduce the burden (and ultimately the cost). However even on the best days of the year the efficiency ratio was 1:4 and sometimes as little as 1:2. For those thickets here that means that one unit of heating energy in can sometimes produce 4 out. That means we still need some conventional oil fuelled energy in. If we rerouted this into helping the country become energy efficient we ‘might’ have something to look forward to. By this I mean proper grants, this low energy is rapidly expensive (I spent 1000’s on low energy light and energy efficiency stuff recently – no grant!! :-( )
There is so much more to say in this but I dont have the time, but without sounding like a fringe loony I will be preparing for this right down to tins of beans, self sufficient houses and a big fence to keep the looters out. Although I am not stockpiling beans yet, I ain’t that mad!
I started reading about this a few years ago – and emailed the political parties about it and what their plans were. None of them had a clue – apart from one minor party. It’s pretty shocking and something we need to seriously look at.
The 15Bn they’re thinking about spending on the Severn Estuary tidal power scheme could be used to give houses solar hot water and solar power – spreading energy distribution all across the UK.
Greenland and Sweden are planning on being oil free by 2020.
The UK needs to secure renewable energy urgently and to increase the amount of food we grow in the UK so we are less dependent on outside sources. It’s not tin foil hat stuff anymore. It’s very real and needs seriously addressing.